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The situation in the IT industry, like in other sectors, is susceptible to various external factors such as the condition of the global economy or financial crisis. The Polish IT job market is currently dealing with an unstable geopolitical situation and rampant inflation. The challenging situation is slowly being resolved, but it’s difficult to speak of stability, predictability, or the boom that we experienced during the pandemic.
How is the Polish IT market responding to global changes in the IT sector? What impact do they have on recruitment needs in Poland? Tomek Bujok, CEO of No Fluff Jobs, answers these and many other questions in a conversation with Karina Kwiatkowska from Devire.
The End of the crisis in the IT industry is on the horizon
Karina Kwiatkowska, Devire: Can we say that the crisis in the IT industry is behind us?
Tomek Bujok, No Fluff Jobs: In recent years, we have witnessed several pivotal moments in the IT industry, such as massive layoffs in Big Tech companies. These were surprising because they showed that even this sector can experience a crisis. Fortunately, the IT industry, as one of the most innovative, always finds a way out of such situations.
The current slowdown, although it has been ongoing since the beginning of the year, is likely coming to an end. Globally, it is estimated that the start of the new year will see a significant rebound in recruitment. The steps that global tech giants are already taking in this regard are very optimistic.
Recruitment needs in the IT industry
Karina: How are recruitment needs currently shaping up in the IT industry?
Tomek: Recruitment needs in the tech sector are still enormous.
In 2024, as many as one-third of Polish employers are planning to expand their teams. Furthermore, according to calculations from the Polish Economic Institute last year, there is still a shortage of up to 150,000 specialists in this field in our market.
In addition, there is a megatrend indicated by the European Union: by 2030, 20 million people will be working in the IT/ICT sectors in Europe. The current opportunities can only cover half of this demand. So, at this point, we should consider how to train millions of individuals who will contribute to an industry with such immense needs.
An open question remains regarding the long-term impact of the increasingly widespread use of artificial intelligence. Already, the initial data confirm a significant increase in productivity associated with AI development.
K: Should IT professionals still be concerned about mass layoffs in the industry?
TB: It’s hard to say that we’ve experienced mass layoffs in the IT industry in Poland. This trend was more noticeable in the West, where huge corporations employing hundreds of thousands of people operate.
The suspension of hiring and subsequent layoffs overseas affected most of the major players. Giants like Google, Meta, Amazon, or Netflix had to halt their recruitment at the end of the previous year and later reduce their workforce in pursuit of productivity. It’s also worth noting that Apple did not carry out any layoffs. This was the result of a sensible employment policy during the pandemic.
The situation in the IT industry, like in other sectors, is susceptible to various external factors, such as the global economic condition, financial crises, or political changes. However, many events have shown us that crises in this industry tend to be relatively short-lived. The rapid development of the tech sector leaves no room for a slowdown but rather encourages the search for optimal solutions.
The challenging situation in the IT market is slowly being resolved. However, it’s still too early to speak of stability, predictability, and the boom that we saw just a year ago. The stocks of the largest companies have rebounded on the stock market, layoffs have ceased, and some players, such as Microsoft and Nvidia, have also made investments to further strengthen their positions in the coming years. Moreover, the IT sector has begun hiring again. Meta and Salesforce have rehired thousands of people, and other tech giants will soon follow suit.
Polish IT industry and the global situation
K: How does the situation in the global market impact the IT industry in Poland?
TB: We need to distinguish between two things: first, the layoffs that occurred in the USA and Western Europe, and second, the reductions in Poland. When it comes to what happened across the ocean in the past year, such a turn of events wasn’t very surprising. In the USA, investors have been pouring money into tech sector investments for years, so during the good times, business owners were hiring aggressively.
Unfortunately, with the arrival of an economic slowdown and a lack of orders, investment funds said, “We need to check this.” And that’s when a wave of layoffs hit the Big Tech companies.
The biggest cost for companies is their workforce, and because companies went overboard with hiring, they started to “normalize” the situation mainly through mass layoffs, aiming to restore productivity. In the first quarter of 2023, nearly 170,000 people were laid off in the USA. In the second quarter, it was three times fewer, and in the third quarter, five times fewer. So, this trend is reversing.
While it’s often said that Europe feels the impact from across the ocean, this situation only affected some companies in our region. Primarily, it affected IT firms that specialized in body leasing or in the execution of technology projects for U.S. companies.
Our local problems turned out to be a much bigger challenge. The financial crisis and inflation halted project implementation and caused some companies to put their development on hold, and in extreme cases, bid farewell to their employees. However, when comparing this situation to what happened across the ocean, the losses in Poland were significantly smaller.
K: At Devire, we’ve observed that despite the general slowdown and stabilization of salaries, DevOps and ML specialists can rest easy. Companies are still investing in cloud and AI solutions. Do you see any other areas in IT that are the most resilient to crises?
TB: The general slowdown and salary stabilization usually don’t affect areas in the industry that are experiencing what’s known as “hype.” DevOps and Machine Learning, from the perspective of the entire industry, continue to see steady growth. Their resilience to turbulence is due to the increasing demand for cloud technologies and AI tools by companies.
But in general, if we look at other areas, we can also find those where it’s hard to find signs of a crisis. In recent years, there has been a surge in the popularity of cybersecurity solutions, the development of remote work and collaboration tools, the further proliferation of blockchain, and the emergence of new mobile technologies.
The technology industry doesn’t tolerate stagnation; it’s characterized by high innovation, so a standstill in one part of it creates opportunities for other areas to have their “moment in the spotlight.” It’s also important to remember that crises in the industry, while sometimes painful and serious (like the dot-com bubble at the beginning of the 21st century), are typically short-lived. The needs of modern societies are vast and closely linked to technological progress, so there is always something to do in this field.
Candidate behaviors in the IT industry
K: How does the slowdown affect the behavior of candidates in various areas of the IT industry?
TB: Candidates are closely monitoring the market. They keep a close eye on what’s happening in their companies. So, they are well aware of when to prepare for tough times.
This is reflected in their greater caution. As a result, the time spent applying for a new job is extended because they want to weigh all the pros and cons. They are uncertain about whether another company might offer better conditions or if it might be facing financial difficulties. Simultaneously, they are more willing to seek part-time work or temporary projects. When they do decide to apply somewhere, they rely on personal judgment regarding the employer’s stability – they mainly choose companies with a well-known brand and an impeccable reputation.
Furthermore, since changing employment is happening in uncertain times, they want to know what else the company has to offer. They are more inclined to negotiate benefits and pay closer attention to the organizational culture of potential employers.
Some employees also understand that a crisis is always a kind of opportunity. They use their free time to further their education, learn new technologies, or engage in industry networking that may open doors to other companies and new opportunities in the future.
Juniors in the IT industry in Poland
K: Is there currently a demand for Junior professionals in IT? When will their time come?
TB: The past few years haven’t been kind to Junior professionals. In fact, since the outbreak of the pandemic, everything has shifted against them. Employers began to prioritize having “sure bets” on their staff in challenging times, so recruitment budgets were almost exclusively allocated to Seniors and Mids.
Currently, not much is changing in this regard. The percentage of Junior job postings on No Fluff Jobs has been consistently in the single digits each year. We try to stimulate this demand a bit through numerous promotional campaigns for companies looking to hire Juniors. However, without greater openness from employers to Junior and internship positions, it’s unlikely that much will change in the short term.
K: Do you have any suggestions for Juniors on how to start and secure a job?
TB: The current market situation doesn’t mean that those taking their first steps in the industry have lost everything. After all, every Senior was once a Junior, so everyone has to start somewhere. As always, besides having an open mind and a touch of humility, I recommend just… working. If you’re not currently employed full-time, it’s worth finding a project for a few or several hours a week. Working on open-source projects also works well. This not only allows you to build a portfolio but also shows that you haven’t been idle. Such an approach reflects determination, a willingness to develop and learn, which will impress any employer.
It’s also worth making the most of the current situation. If internships and apprenticeships are offered (sometimes even for free), it’s another opportunity to take on a challenge. With the right development, you can secure your first job, which will bolster your credibility and position. Remember that the dedication is worth it – although the path is challenging, many envy the salaries and atmosphere in the IT industry, which others have no prospects of obtaining.
K: Will AI take away jobs from Juniors?
TB: We know of cases where companies unfortunately let go of Juniors due to the widespread use of artificial intelligence. Their decisions were justified by optimizing during a crisis and a relatively straightforward calculation – a Mid-level programmer effectively using AI can complete their tasks two hours faster, leaving the remaining time for Junior tasks (also with the help of artificial intelligence).
In my opinion, such actions are extremely short-sighted. It’s well known that in the long run, this approach undermines the very branch one is sitting on. If someone is to become a Mid-level professional in the future, they must go through the Junior path. There are no shortcuts in this process. Therefore, it is crucial for Juniors to learn from the beginning how to use AI solutions at work, as this significantly increases their chances in the job market.
Employer approach to hiring IT specialists
K: What are the three biggest differences in employers’ approach to seeking experts in the IT industry in 2023 compared to 2022?
TB: In 2023, it was clear that employers had become more cautious about their recruitment plans. This trend was already noticeable at the end of the previous year when the first real signs of a financial crisis affecting Poland became evident.
Because inflation is persisting, the entire current year could be considered a year of “waiting it out.” Companies, aiming to maintain financial liquidity and workforce, often refrained from making large-scale recruitment investments.
The second matter, which probably pleases employers more than employees, is a clear shift in the approach to remote work. This year, IT specialists felt the pull back to the office more significantly (even if for 2-3 days a week). This trend has intensified in recent months – in Q2 2023, remote work offers made up 63% of all job postings on nofluffjobs.com, while the previous year, this figure exceeded 75%. For some, the compulsion to return to the office could be the deciding factor in their desire to stay with the company. Consequently, employers who are open to any location can gain an advantage in recruitment.
But this year also brought a lot of good in terms of technology adaptation. In recent months, we have witnessed how artificial intelligence has become commonplace, and how IT companies are receptive to it. According to a No Fluff Jobs study, “AI in the IT Job Market,” 94% of IT specialists use artificial intelligence in their daily work.
Polish companies are open to these solutions – over half enable all employees to use AI tools, and 37% allow this possibility for selected positions. It’s clear that organizations believe AI can accelerate task execution, relieve employees from repetitive tasks, and unlock the professional potential of each of us. The ability of candidates to use AI tools will also be an asset for employers in new recruitments.
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